Latest Presidential Polls Raise Skepticism


The latest Presidential Poll from Pew Research Center, shows Mitt Romney leading President Obama by 49% to 45% within the margin of error.  In Pew’s previous poll, conducted in mid-September, the president had a 51%-43% lead among likely voters.  Is it possible, Romney has realized such a dramatic turnaround in so short a period of time?  The short answer is, No.  I suggest Pew re-examine its polling methodology because one only needs common sense to understand that a swing for Romney from 8 points down to 4 points ahead, just didn’t happen.  It raises serious concerns about the credibility of its polls.  The most recent Gallup Poll has the President leading Romney by 50% to 45%, still within the margin of error and probably more accurate.  But why the difference in the two polls?  The most simple explanation is polling is not a science.  The sample chosen, the questions asked can skew the poll one way or the other.  I have always been skeptical of polls and other than making for good reading and discussion on talk shows, polls should be taken with a grain of salt.  We have seen errors in exit polls, most recently in the Wisconsin Governor’s re-call election in which the exit polls had Democrat Tom Barrett leading only for Republican Scott Walker to win by 53% to 46%.  There is little doubt Romney helped himself in last week’s presidential debate.  He did what he set out to do; he held his own against the great communicator, and most importantly, he appeared presidential.  So while there is little likelihood he swayed many independents, of which there are few, he probably did convince some in the party to vote, who might have elected to sit this one out.  You either believe the President has taken the country in the right direction or you believe he’s destroying everything this country holds dear.  Any commentator or polling service that claims otherwise, is misinformed or just plain wrong.  Barring any major controversy or scandal, the polls should remain fairly consistent right up until election day.

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