As it’s turning out, the most accurate winter weather predictor so far, has been the Farmer’s Almanac.  Not only did it predict a colder than normal winter, it predicted a particularly stormy period for early February.  Specifically, it says, “Over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states, we are “red-flagging” the first ten days of February for possible heavy winter weather. More importantly, on February 2, Super Bowl XLVIII will be played at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey’s Meadowlands—the very first time a Super Bowl will be played outdoors in a typically cold weather environment. We are forecasting stormy weather for this, the biggest of sporting venues. But even if we are off by a day or two with the timing of copious wind, rain, and snow, we wish to stress that this particular part of the winter season will be particularly volatile and especially turbulent.”  Now one might say that this forecast is like a horoscope, if it works out and pertains to you, it’s absolutely the truth.  But it just so happens that one day after the Superbowl, February 3rd, New York City is in the midst of a decent snowstorm.  This storm will be followed by another snow/rain even on the 5th and a potentially huge snow event on the 8th.  It is a very stormy period in the Northeast.

The reason I point this out is there were other long-range predictions that called for January to be a mild month.  For example, one prognosticator said, “It will be colder than average in the Eastern half of the United States, with the exception of January where I believe we will see a mild January thaw in the east.”  Clearly that didn’t happen.  The east had a very cold January with no thaw and a fair amount of snow.

While I don’t want to point out any specific names but there are those who believe wholeheartedly in global warming and predict with their bias.  The Farmer’s Almanac clearly does not do that and predicts with the evidence that presents itself whether it be el Nino, La Nina or volcanic activity in the arctic.  Or perhaps there’s some good educated guessing taking place.  But whatever the methodology, the Farmer’s Almanac has so far been perfect.  Kudos to the Farmer’s Almanac.